We are a few weeks away from the halfway point of the 2021-2022 NBA season. As discussed in my most recent article, we can use the concept of Pythagorean expectation to analyze the true performance of teams and project the rest of the season. Here is a reminder of the formula for Pythagorean expectation:
To predict NBA data, we use the exponent of 14 in our formula (most Pythagorean analyses of the NBA use exponents from 13-17). Here is the current Pythagorean standings:
The teams highlighted in green have been overperforming their expected performance, and the teams highlighted in red have been underperforming their expected performance. Interesting teams to considers are Oklahoma City and the Utah Jazz. Despite being 9-19, OKC are actually still overperforming their expected win percentage by almost 10 percent. On the other end of the spectrum, Utah are 20-9 with one of the best records in the NBA and still underperforming their expected win percentage by more than 10 percent.
Now, let's look at the projected final standings for the 2021-2022 season.
The teams highlighted in green are the teams that project to improve their standing the most, while the teams highlighted in red are the teams that project to decline the rest of the way. Notable teams include Washington, who are projected to drop 9 overall spots (6 spots in the Eastern Conference as you will see soon). Despite their hot start, the Wizards are 3-7 in their last 10 games, and Pythagorean analysis shows little sign of recovery for this team. In addition, despite the lowly preseason expectations for the Cleveland Cavaliers, Pythagorean analysis shows that they have not been a fluke so far.
Here are the projected Eastern Conference and Western Conference standings:
Remember that with the new rules in the NBA, the top 6 teams in each conference are automatically in the playoffs while the teams in 7-10 position have to compete in the play-in tournament before qualifying for the playoffs.
We will revisit these projections at the end of the season. The R code for this project will be posted soon as well.
Feel free to contact me with any questions or comments via social media (@ryank_08 on Twitter and @ryan8kyaw on Instagram) or email (ryankyaw6@gmail.com).
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